000 AXNT20 KNHC 211137 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER W AFRICA. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N31W 3N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-29W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF 4N BETWEEN 10W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 46W-58W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ACROSS TEXAS TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT REMAINS INLAND OVER TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER E TEXAS/W LOUISIANA GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N BETWEEN VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS BORDER. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN THE HIGH WILL MOVE E ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE N GULF FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF BEHIND THE FRONT SAT THEN SHIFTING OVER THE NE GULF SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA/W TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N E OF 80W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE FRESH TO STRONG EACH NIGHT S OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH FRI. W ATLC SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS BERMUDA FRI THEN NE OF THE AREA SAT DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS. HISPANIOLA... LINGERING MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT WHEN THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEAR ZONAL FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W AND INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO SPLIT BY A FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 29N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N51W ALONG 26N61W TO 26N71W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND WEAKENS NW ALONG 29N75W TO BEYOND 32N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 66W. A REMNANT FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC AS COLD NEAR 32N22W TO 28N29W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 23B41W TO 20N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 20N50W TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 23N29W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD ACROSS THE W ATLC TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SE ACROSS BERMUDA FRI AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS EARLY SAT AND EXTEND FROM 32N69W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUN MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW