000 AXNT20 KNHC 202341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED APR 20 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 08N13W. THE ITCZ AXIS AS DEFINED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BEGINS NEAR 07N14W TO 03N32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N78W. TO THE SW...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N92W TO 19N93W. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE GULF E OF 90W SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGING TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER S AMERICA AND THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A SW TO W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO ALSO EXTENDS S REACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE ONLY FEATURE PRESENT OVER THE AREA IS THE TAIL- END OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LINGERING LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 70W. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 12N BETWEEN 64W AND 75W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT FOR A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT ITSELF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLANTIC W OF 66W TO OVER CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N78W. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N79W TO 29N72W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 32N59W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 28N AND W OF 71W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N50W TO 31N43W. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 19N58W TO 23N48W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM 23N48W TO A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N31W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN 26W AND 54W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR E PORTION OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N18W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS AND MOVE E. THE FRONTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA