000 AXNT20 KNHC 200546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED APR 20 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N41W ALONG 22N47W TO 20N54W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 20/1800 UTC WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 6N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W 1N41W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON ACROSS THE W GULF TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDS FROM 29N92W TO 26N92W WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 24N96W TO OFF VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE NW GULF TROUGH AND W OF THE SW GULF TROUGH TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS FROM 21N89W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN TO N GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN THE HIGH WILL MOVE E ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE E THROUGH THE N GULF FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA/W TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC BECOMES STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES TO OVER GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N E OF 70W OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE FRESH TO STRONG EACH NIGHT S OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THU NIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E ACROSS BERMUDA FRI THEN MOVE NE OF THE AREA SAT DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... LINGERING MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEAR ZONAL FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT FROM THE S INCREASING THE SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N79W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 27N53W TO 24N69W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT N OF THE AREA THROUGH 32N41W ALONG 22N47W TO 20N54W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 17N58W THEN DISSIPATES TO OVER GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A RE-ENFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N51W TO 25N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N50W TO BEYOND 32N46W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N55W 25N46W TO BEYOND 32N39W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N27W. CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WED WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NE WATERS ON WED. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW