000 AXNT20 KNHC 192352 TWDAT AXNT20 KNHC DDHHMM TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 21N55W TO 26N47W TO 32N42W. THESE WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA N OF 26N AND WITHIN 180 NM SE OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS PREDICTED TO BE NEAR 31N37W TO 27N45W TO 19N55W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT...UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN AFRICA TO THE COAST OF THE BORDER BETWEEN SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA. FROM THAT POINT...THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 06N12W TO 02N30W TO 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF 83W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS E CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXTENDING S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 24N96W TO 18N94W WHILE TO THE N...ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 30N94W TO 27N97W. THE EASTERN GULF IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS NEAR 35N91W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 75W. TO THE E...THE TIP OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WITH JET DYNAMICS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS SETTING OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS MAINLY E OF 70W. TO THE S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA AFFECTING THE AREA S OF 12N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT FOR A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 67W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N63W TO 32N54W. AN ACTIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 17N63W TO 21N55W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 26N47W TO 32N42W. A LARGE BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILS WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 32W AND 56W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 29N30W AND 38N32W. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NE WATERS ON WED. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA