000 AXNT20 KNHC 190535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N24W 1N30W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 43W-49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 29W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS TO 24N92W IN THE NW GULF SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N92W THROUGH A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1017 MB LOW NEAR 27N93W TO 24N92W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 92W-96W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF THE LOW. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER NE MEXICO GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE W GULF W OF 95W FROM TUXPAN MEXICO TO JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 21N FROM THE COAST TO 92W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER S GEORGIA. THIS IS GIVING THE E GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE E GULF THROUGH WED BEFORE WEAKENING WED NIGHT THEN RE- ESTABLISHING OVER THE FAR N GULF THU. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF THE GULF ON FRI ALLOWING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW AND N GULF THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NE GULF FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL W TO W-SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA/W TROPICAL ATLC IS GENERATING A JET STREAK OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC BEFORE DISSIPATING N OF PUERTO RICO TO THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST N OF PUERTO RICO ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N E OF 70W TO OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE SE CARIBBEAN BUT RADAR INDICATES LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE FRESH TO STRONG EACH NIGHT S OF HISPANIOLA AND ON THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC DISSIPATES N OF PUERTO RICO TO OVER E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVING THE ISLAND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER S GEORGIA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N61W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT N OF THE AREA THROUGH 32N46W ALONG 25N53W TO 19N65W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18.5N69W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N38W THROUGH 32N45W TO THE SAME TRIPLE POINT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N ALONG 39W IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200/225 NM OF LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W ALONG 22N54W TO 28N42W. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 31N10W OVER THE WESTERN SAHARA TO 20N23W. WEDGED BETWEEN THESE FRONTS IS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES. CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE THROUGH TUE THEN EXTEND FROM 31N39W TO 25N45W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 20N55W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 18N62W BY WED NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NE WATERS ON WED. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS AND WEAKEN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW