000
AXNT20 KNHC 181800
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 09N13W AND THEN CONTINUES TO 04N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 00N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-06N BETWEEN
18W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04S BETWEEN
27W-50W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N83W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER E TEXAS FROM 33N96W TO 28N100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT OVER E TEXAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 93W-97W. 15-20 KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W
OF 90W WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF AND SE TEXAS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER E TEXAS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 20N70W TO 20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N74W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W S OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO JUST N OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

HISPANIOLA...            

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE TAIL END OF A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                 
           
A SMALL 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N62W.
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF 31N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N48W TO 23N57W TO N OF HISPANIOLA AT
20N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN
45W-52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM
31N46W TO 28N43W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 24N37W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N13W ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 24N20W TO 21N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-
80W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 25N
E OF 35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL ATLANTIC FRONTS
TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA