000 AXNT20 KNHC 181114 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 05N20W AND 04N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N25W TO 02N32W AND 02N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 01N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N FROM 37W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W EASTWARD. THIS NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. SOME OF THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES DOWNSTREAM WITH SOME OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 34N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN EAST TEXAS AND IN PARTS OF THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THIS AREA...TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED FROM BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR TO JASPER...AND FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO HUNTSVILLE...AS EXAMPLES. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA...TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR CONDITIONS...KMZG. IFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KXIH...KVAF...KVQT...AND KGRY. MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBQX...KGLS...KVBS...KHHV...KEMK... KGUL...KHQI...KEHC...KGHB...KEIR...KSPR...AND KATP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MVFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. IFR IN ROCKPORT... PORT LAVACA...AND PALACIOS...IN BAY CITY...AND IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED FROM BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR TO JASPER...AND FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM LAKE CHARLES TO SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES FROM BATON ROUGE TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE LAND MASS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO- EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS AND PARTS OF NICARAGUA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WEST WIND FLOW REACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA BEYOND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ...HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 20N70W...ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL HAITI...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 2200 FEET...AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 4000 FEET...VFR...AT 18/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 18/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO... FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48- HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW...WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF...FIRST...WEST WIND FLOW AND THEN SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FROM EASTERN PANAMA BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS A TROUGH WILL MOVE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA EARLY DURING DAY ONE...AND THE TROUGH WILL STAY THERE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE CUTTING ACROSS CUBA FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND/OR BE PUSHED WESTWARD DURING DAY TWO. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...SENDING SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N62W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES 32N52W TO 23N60W 20N70W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 20N70W...ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL HAITI...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.09 IN BERMUDA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 33W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE AREA OF CLOUDS. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 38N17W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THE CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 26N20W AND 23N30W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 23N30W TO 25N40W...TO 32N52W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N10W...ACROSS MOROCCO...TO 23N17W 21N30W...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N41W...TO 25N49W. A RIDGE REACHES 31N39W...TO THE NORTH OF THE 32N52W 20N70W COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT