000
AXNT20 KNHC 172332
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W AND CONTINUES TO 04N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 02N32W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BOUNDARY FROM 03N TO 07N AND E
OF 15W WHILE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 01S TO
04N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NE CONUS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A CONVERGENT FLOW ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE SE GULF
WATERS S OF 24 AND E OF 85W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
MAINLY N OF 25N...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS PREVAIL S OF
25N. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF AND SE
TEXAS IN 24 HOURS DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER SE TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

THE CONVECTION THAT IS AFFECTING THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS MOVING S
ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. TO THE S...A 1007 MB SURFACE
LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. BENIGN WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT A
SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

HISPANIOLA...            

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE N
DUE TO THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 68W.
TO THE E...A 1011 SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N62W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 22N66W TO 21N70W THEN WEAKENING
TO 21N75W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS NE FROM THE SAME LOW PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO 27N60W TO
28N56W. A COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDS FROM 28N56W TO 32N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE FRONTS MAINLY N OF 27N. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT IS
FROM 32N54W TO 25N40W THEN A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT
TO 215N28W TO 32N81W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
21N38W. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO
CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA