000 AXNT20 KNHC 171741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N11W AND THEN CONTINUES TO 04N10W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 00N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-02S BETWEEN 21W- 29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N81W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S TO CENTRAL CUBA. 10-25 KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS THE LIGHTEST WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 26N AND E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF AND SE TEXAS IN 24 HOURS DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER SE TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W WITH CONVECTION. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. BROKEN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE N DUE TO THE TAL END OF A COLD FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N62W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 23N67W TO THE S BAHAMAS AT 22N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW TO 26N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N- 29N BETWEEN 57W-62W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N54W AND EXTENDS S TO THE WARM FRONT AT 26N58W. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N23W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 30N24W 25N30W 25N40W 26N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO BEYOND 31N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 47W- 53W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 21N33W. ANOTHER 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N17W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 55W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 25N E OF 40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL ATLANTIC FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA