000 AXNT20 KNHC 171113 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W TO 05N14W TO 04N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N17W TO 02N28W 02N34W 01N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE FROM 06N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THROUGH 24N70W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 25N80W AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N88W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD FROM 88W WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N92W 26N93W 24N94W. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... IFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...AND KGRY. MVFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KXIH...KVBS...KVQT...KATP...KEIR... KSPR...KMDJ...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...AND KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR AND MVFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MVFR FROM FALFURRIAS TO THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA. IFR IN ROCKPORT...VICTORIA...AND PORT LAVACA WITH LIGHT RAIN. MVFR IN PALACIOS...BAY CITY...AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. IFR AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...CONTINUING TO HUNTSVILLE. MVFR IN BEAUMONT/ PORT ARTHUR AND JASPER. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...INCLUDING AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE AREA THAT IS AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE LAKE. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN GULFPORT. ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN MARATHON KEY. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE LAND MASS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO- EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WEST WIND FLOW REACHES JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N NORTHWARD. WEST WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES NICARAGUA AND IT REACHES 78W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVING ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.07 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 5000 FEET...VFR...AT 17/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 17/0100 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...1800 FEET...MVFR. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48- HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF... FIRST...SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...EVENTUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH EITHER WILL BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...OR IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE...WITH HISPANIOLA AT THE WESTERN END OF A RIDGE. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL BE TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA PLUS THE ALREADY-EXISTING RIDGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO. THE REST OF THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO WILL BE MORE RELATED TO JUST THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 36N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES 32N54W TO 25N60W 24N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 25N80W AND 27N88W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 55W...AND FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 27N48W...TO THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTH OF THE 32N54W- TO-25N80W COLD FRONT. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 40N32W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 33N15W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N26W. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO 29N30W TO 25N40W AND 26N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N47W TO 32N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W 23N30W 20N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A CANARY ISLANDS 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N16W...TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N24W...TO A THIRD 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N40W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT