000
AXNT20 KNHC 161754
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N11W AND THEN CONTINUES TO 04N14W...WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 00N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
03S44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
00N-05N BETWEEN 11W-24W...AND FROM 00N-06S BETWEEN 22W-30W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N86W TO S LOUISIANA AT 29N92W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 83W-
91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. 20-25 KT
EASTERLY FLOW IS N OF FRONT. 10-15 KT SE FLOW IS S OF FRONT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S
OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-15N E
OF 65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILS. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

HISPANIOLA...            

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N56W TO 25N65W
TO S FLORIDA AT 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-26N
BETWEEN 73W-78W. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
28N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM
27N-31N BETWEEN 28W-34W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 25N20W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 15W-45W ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE E ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO DRIFT E WITH SHOWERS...WHILE A
COLD FRONT DIPS S INTO THE E ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA