000
AXNT20 KNHC 160006
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SENEGAL AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 04N21W TO
02N29W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 01S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 05S E OF 10W
AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS SW N ATLC WATERS NEAR 30N63W TO 28N68W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY PER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRES COVERING THE E CONUS AND FAR WEST ATLC. THE STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN EXTENDS ACROSS NE
GULF WATERS FROM 27N82W TO 27N87W TO THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA
NEAR 29N91W. LATEST SCAT PASS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A 1009 MB
LOW NEAR 24N90W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO
21N91W WHILE VIS IMAGERY SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST ALONG
25N94W TO 22N94W. THE SCAT DATA ALSO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
IN THE NE BASIN N OF THE FRONT...AS THE PRES GRADIENT GETS
TIGHTER WITH THE RIDGE REACHING THROUGH COASTAL WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GOES LIGHTING DENSITY DATA INDICATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF
86W...AND HEAVY SHOWERS AND SEVERE TSTMS ON THE SE BASIN FROM
24N TO 26N E OF 86W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STALL IN THE NE
GULF THROUGH EARLY SUN WHEN IT WILL DISSIPATE. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE N OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS SHOWERS
IN THE E BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLTED TSTMS ARE HAPPENING ALONG
NORTHERN CUBA BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFUENCE ALOFT AND SHALLOW
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. NW TO W FLOW CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT THAT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STABLE CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES
DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ENHANCED BY LOCAL GEOGRAPHY. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. 

HISPANIOLA...            

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE SUN AS A MOIST AIRMASS APPROACHES FROM THE
E AND TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LOW IN THE
NW ATLC DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DURING THE WEEKEND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTANEOUS REGION/CENTRAL
ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ENHANCED BY
DIURNAL HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS SW N ATLC WATERS NEAR 30N63W TO 28N68W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY CONTINUING TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 28N77W TO
THE EASTERN CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W...THEN
EXTENDING ACROSS NE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. HEAVY SHOWERS AND
SEVERE TSTMS ARE FROM 25N TO 27N W OF GRAND BAHAMA. FARTHER
EAST...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N51W WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS E FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO
19N57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR