000
AXNT20 KNHC 151731
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND EXTENDS THROUGH 07N20W TO 02N30W...WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 03N40W TO 02N49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE EQUATOR E OF
15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 36W
AND 47W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER N MISSISSIPPI AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W TO 30N92W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS
EXTEND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS WELL FROM 28N84W TO 25N88W AND
FROM 30N92W TO 25N94W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 82W AND 89W.
ELSEWHERE A THERMAL...AND CONVECTION FREE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 23N89W TO 18N91W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1013 MB IS CENTERED
NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO. FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS COVER
THE SE GULF. MODERATE NE TO E WINDS COVER THE WESTERN GULF. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH
CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY STABLE MID LEVEL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BASIN...SUPPORTING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER OTHER THAN WEAK SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND
MOISTURE. MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WINDS N OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL PULSE TO STRONG EACH NIGHT OVER THE
WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

HISPANIOLA...            

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
ISLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LESS STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W TO 28N72W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N79W TO THE FL
COAST NEAR 28N81W. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S
OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. FARTHER EAST...A 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N53W WITH SURFACE TROUGHING THAT
EXTENDS E FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO 26N48W...AND SW TO 19N59W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR
32N17W AND EXTENDS TO 29N22W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N30W TO 26N38W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A
WARM FRONT TO 28N43W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 35W AND 46W. WEAK RIDGING ANCHORED
BY A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 21N37W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W ATLC...INCLUDING THE N BAHAMAS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO