000 AXNT20 KNHC 151122 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N17W 8N19W 3N25W TO 2N31W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N43W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 3N E OF 4W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND PRIME MERIDIAN. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 8W-18W AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 21W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 4N-8N BETWEEN 41W-47W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 27W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF THIS MORNING. AT 15/0900 UTC...A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN COCOA BEACH AND TAMPA CONTINUING INTO THE GULF ALONG 28N85W TO 29N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N92W TO 23N96W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE S GULF EXTENDING ALONG 89.5W FROM 23N TO INLAND OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N TO THE STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN 84W-87W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE CONUS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-90W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH SAT. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE N OF 16N W OF 80W WHERE UPPER MOISTURE IS MOVING IN FROM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES REMAIN RATHER CLEAR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE S/CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE TO 16N63W. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT E THROUGH SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRESH E TO SE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND. HISPANIOLA... POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL COAST OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED MOVE BACK ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH SUN. THIS COULD GIVE THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 15/0900 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N65W TO 28N71W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT W OF 74W TO OVER THE SE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 32N52W TO 22N49W SUPPORTING A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 26N54W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S ALONG 23N53W 19N58W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR GUADELOUPE. A DYING WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE 1011 MB LOW TO 26N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 47W-52W. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N17W ALONG 28N25W TO 26N32W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N45W THEN DISSIPATES TO 29N52W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF THIS FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 23N42W. THE CENTRAL ATLC LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY S REACHING FROM 32N58W ALONG 27N65W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA SAT MORNING BEFORE STALLING FROM 32N55W ALONG 25N65W TO FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA SUN MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW