000 AXNT20 KNHC 150551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W TO 3N39W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO 3N42W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF TONIGHT. AT 15/0300 UTC...A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN COCOA BEACH AND CEDAR KEY CONTINUING INTO THE GULF TO THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS NEAR 30N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF NEAR 29.5N92.5W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 28N92.5W ALONG 26N93W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE S GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N89W INLAND OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N TO THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF 87W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE S GULF S OF 25N W OF 87W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE SAT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE N OF 17N W OF 80W WHERE UPPER MOISTURE IS MOVING IN FROM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES REMAIN RATHER CLEAR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND E PUERTO RICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 15N64W. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT E THROUGH SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN AND INCREASING TO STRONG BREEZE EACH NIGHT. A FRESH E TO SE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS OVERNIGHT AND FRI NIGHT THAT WILL BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND. HISPANIOLA... POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH SUN. THIS COULD GIVE THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 15/0300 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N67W TO 29N72W WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N79W THEN CROSSES FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N TO THE FRONT W OF 78W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT W OF 74W TO INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 32N54W TO 23N52W SUPPORTING A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 25N55W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S ALONG 21N56W ALONG 19N60W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W. A WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE 1011 MB LOW ALONG 27N52W TO 26N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 23N TO THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN 48W-53W. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N19W ALONG 27N29W TO 26N41W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N47W THEN DISSIPATES TO 31N56W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF THIS FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 23N37W AND A SECOND 1018 MB HIGH NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N11W. THE CENTRAL ATLC LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY S REACHING FROM 32N65W ALONG 29N71W TO SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA FRI MORNING THEN FROM 32N58W ALONG 27N65W TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA SAT MORNING BEFORE STALLING FROM 32N55W ALONG 25N65W TO FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA SUN MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW