000 AXNT20 KNHC 141148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W ALONG 4N18W TO 2N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N31W 4N37W 3N43W THEN ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE GULF S OF 27N. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND TAMPA CONTINUING INTO THE GULF ALONG 28N85W ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF SE LOUISIANA TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 27N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1011 MB LOW ALONG 23N95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO INLAND THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 86W-93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 86W-92W... AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE N GULF DURING SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE EXTREME NW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER SOME PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...AND EXTEND S OF THE ISLAND TO NEAR 16.5N BETWEEN 69W-73W. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN SAINT LUCIA AND DOMINICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRI AS THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE THU THROUGH SUN AND WILL INCREASE TO STRONG BREEZE EACH NIGHT. A FRESH E TO SE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU AND FRI THAT WILL BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING BETWEEN 69W-73W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST S OF THE ISLAND WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE S COAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHEN THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO AGAIN MOVE OVER THE ISLAND. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE ISLAND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF 31N...AND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 23N62W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N- 25N BETWEEN 55W-59W. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N24W ALONG 28N35W TO 28N44W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO BEYOND 32N57W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF THIS FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 24N26W. THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E-NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME A COLD FRONT TODAY...AND REACH FROM NEAR 32N68W TO 29N74W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FROM 32N60W ALONG 27N65W TO 26N71W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA FRI NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW/AGUIRRE