000 AXNT20 KNHC 140522 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W ALONG 4N15W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W 2N35W THEN ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W ATLC AT 14/0300 UTC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND HOMOSASSA CONTINUING INTO THE GULF ALONG 28N85W ACROSS SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29.5N89W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 27N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW ALONG 24N95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. THE UPPER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRI AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE EXTREME NW. LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND THE UPPER TROUGH ARE GENERATING LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-73W. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF MARTINIQUE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRI AS THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA N OF THE LEEWARD/ VIRGIN ISLANDS. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL INCREASE TO STRONG BREEZE EACH NIGHT. A FRESH E TO SE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU AND FRI THAT WILL BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND. HISPANIOLA... LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND BETWEEN 70W-73W. MOISTURE WILL MOVE S AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OVERNIGHT GIVING HISPANIOLA MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THU. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRI NIGHT GIVING THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 14/0300 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N75W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 24N61W TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N- 27N BETWEEN 52W-59W. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N25W ALONG 28N36W TO 30N52W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO BEYOND 32N58W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF THIS FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 25N42W AND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 25N25W. THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU BEFORE SINKING SLOWLY S ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC FRI AND SAT. WEAK REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N62W ALONG 26N65W TO 29N81W SAT MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW