000 AXNT20 KNHC 140005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 2N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 6W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 39W-45W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 47W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N87W TO 28N90W TO THE NW GULF AT 28N96W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER S...A SMALL 1008 MB LOW IS S OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 21N96W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO 23N98W TO 28N96W. ELSEWHERE S OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS N OF 25N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE LEAVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER N FLORIDA...AND OVER THE W GULF NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N64W TO 17N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WELL E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IN A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING S OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM 31N79W TO 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30NM OF THE FRONT. A 1011 MB LOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 24N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 20N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE TROUGH 22N-26N BETWEEN 53W-59W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N29W TO 29N35W TO 30N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO BEYOND 31N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONTS. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THEW ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 64W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE AXIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS...FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO 26N59W WITH SHOWERS...AND FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA