000 AXNT20 KNHC 131744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N12W TO 06N13W AND 04N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N16W...TO 02N20W 01N30W 02N38W 02N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN SOUTHERN LIBERIA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 08W AND 10W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 02W AND 07W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02S TO 05N BETWEEN 30W AND 47W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N TO 15W AND 30W...AND FROM 05N TO 03S BETWEEN 36W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. FROM KANSAS TO TEXAS BETWEEN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AND LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...AND MISSOURI. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...TO 29N83W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO 29N94W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...TO 27N96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST AT 13/0845 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG NOW IS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR CONDITIONS...KMZG AND KVKY. IFR CONDITIONS...KBQX AND KMIS. MVFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KGUL...KGBK...KVQT... KGRY...KMDJ... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR AND MVFR IN THE DEEP SOUTH/THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS. MVFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO A LINE FROM VICTORIA-TO-PORT LAVACA-TO PALACIOS. PORT LAVACA IS REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR AND IFR IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA INCLUDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING REPORTED AT THE AIRPORTS IN HOUSTON-HOBBY AND IN PEARLAND. LOUISIANA...IFR IN PARTS OF THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER HAVE ENDED FOR THE MOMENT IN LAFAYETTE AND NEW IBERIA. LIGHT RAIN IN BOOTHVILLE. RAIN ON AGAIN AND OFF AGAIN IN BATON ROUGE. FAIR SKIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN ENDING FOR THE MOMENT ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. ALABAMA...RAIN AND THUNDER IN THE ALABAMA COASTAL PLAINS. FLORIDA...RAIN AND THUNDER FROM DESTIN WESTWARD. MVFR IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. IN MEXICO...TAMPICO IS REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS AND HAZE. POZA RICA IS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS AND HAZE. VERACRUZ IS REPORTING A CLEAR SKY AND A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES AND HAZE. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 75W EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 19N62W AND 15N69W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES 20N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W...AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.43 IN GUADELOUPE...0.31 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.03 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW BY THE END OF DAY TWO. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE...AND IT WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 50W WESTWARD...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 75W EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N60W 26N61W 19N62W 15N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N63W... TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N63W...TO 20N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CREATING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N12W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N27W...TO 25N51W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD TO A 32N28W-TO-31N51W COLD FRONT...BETWEEN AFRICA AND 51W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N74W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA... TO 20N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BEYOND WESTERN HONDURAS TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT