000
AXNT20 KNHC 122349
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 5N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
2N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 22W-29W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 37W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES FROM S
GEORGIA TO S LOUISIANA TO E TEXAS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO
HOUSTON TEXAS. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 93W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS N OF 25N. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH FRONT IS OVER PUERTO RICO AT
18N66W. RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E
CUBA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND N
NICARAGUA. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 10-
15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN A
RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A TROUGH IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HISPANIOLA...            

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N67W TO N PUERTO
RICO AT 18N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 58W-64W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS N OF THE AREA
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 36N30W TO 31N60W WITH SHOWERS. 
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 64W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
AXIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 64W TO MOVE E. ALSO EXPECT A
SURFACE LOW TO FORM IN 24 HOURS NEAR 25N64W WITH CONVECTION.
FURTHER MORE EXPECT A NEW COLD FRONT TO BE OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
FORMOSA