000 AXNT20 KNHC 121741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AFTER 12/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF...THE THREAT OF SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST NEAR GALE OR LOCALLY GALE EXPECTED IN MADEIRA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W TO 06N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N12W...TO 04N18W 04N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...TO 01S36W AND 01S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N TO 15W AND 30W...AND FROM 05N TO 03S BETWEEN 36W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INLAND...ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM GEORGIA NORTHWARD. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTH TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT SOME OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 20N96W 26N91W 28N93W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR...KGLS AND KVBS. IFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KXIH...AND KDLP. MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KVAF...KEMK...KGBK...KGRY...KATP... KSPR...KMDJ...KVKY... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...A COLD FRONT IS IN SOUTH TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. MVFR IN WESLACO. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR IN VICTORIA AND PALACIOS AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. IFR IN GALVESTON. MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AND IN JASPER. IFR IN HUNTSVILLE. MVFR ELSEWHERE IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. HEAVY RAIN IN GALLIANO. MVFR TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN INCLUDING IN BATON ROUGE. IFR IN SLIDELL. MOSTLY MVFR ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IFR AT THE NEW ORLEANS NAVAL AIR STATION JOINT RESERVE BASE. MISSISSIPPI...IFR AT THE STENNIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. GULFPORT AND BILOXI HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAIN AND THUNDER DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. MVFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...LIGHT RAIN IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN IN THE PENSACOLA METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR IN MILTON AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD. DRIZZLE IN MARY ESTHER. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA THAT INCLUDES BERMUDA...THE BAHAMAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N... ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N69W 24N69W...TO THE MONA PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN SHORES OF JAMAICA...ALONG 78W/79W...FROM 16N TO 19N. TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA AND IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE...TO THE NORTHEAST OF 11N61W 17N70W...AND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.12 IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.05 IN GUADELOUPE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NOW. AN EARLIER OBSERVATION REPORTED TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 1800 FEET...MVFR. PUNTA CANA... LIGHT RAIN AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...NEARBY RAINSHOWERS. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. WEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH VARIABLE WINDS...FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF DAY ONE. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FROM THE END OF DAY ONE UNTIL THE END OF DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA THAT INCLUDES BERMUDA...THE BAHAMAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA... HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA/ NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N69W 24N69W...TO THE MONA PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CREATING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 38W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N47W TO 27N28W TO CENTRAL COASTAL MOROCCO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 05N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N70W TO 30N77W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF BELIZE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT