000 AXNT20 KNHC 121121 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N23W TO 1N32W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 14W-24W AND FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N ACROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 36W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GIVING THE GULF W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF WITH REPORTS OF FOG N OF 26N W OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 85W AND SE LOUISIANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 27N ACROSS THE ENTIRE N GULF. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS GIVING WAY TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW GULF TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WED THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL GULF AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND NE HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BEGINNING THU. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WILL PULSE AGAIN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THU NIGHT. THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL SEE A FRESH E-SE BREEZE PULSE THU. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND W OF 70W. MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO WILL SHIFT W TO THE MONA PASSAGE TODAY THEN NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE HISPANIOLA SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING ON THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THEN S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N68W TO JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N67W AND REINFORCING A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N56W ALONG 28N68W TO 25N72W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND S TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N47W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND RETROGRADE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE TROUGH LIFTS N. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED THEN EXTEND FROM 1016 MB LOW NEAR 31N79W TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA WED NIGHT AND DISSIPATE FROM 32N71W TO HOBE SOUND THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW