000 AXNT20 KNHC 111724 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AFTER 12/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF...WESTERLY NEAR GALE OR GALE EXPECTED IN IRVING AND MADEIRA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N9W TO 05N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N12W...TO 02N24W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 02S33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 01N TO 05N FROM 36W EASTWARD. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP IN AN AREA OF RECENT WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA...PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WATERS...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 86W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N78W... ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... IFR CONDITIONS...KBQX. MVFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KXIH...KHHV...KVAF...KGUL...KGRY... AND KSPR. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR CONDITIONS IN TEXAS FROM PALACIOS-TO-GALVESTON SOUTHWARD...AND ELSEWHERE IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AS FAR AWAY AS HUNTSVILLE...AND TO JASPER AND BEAUMONT/ PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. FROM MISSISSIPPI TO FLORIDA... VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA... REACHING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. ANOTHER PART OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM JAMAICA TO 12N79W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 23N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 20N72W...BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE...FROM 70W EASTWARD...AND FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.08 IN CURACAO...AND 0.07 IN GUADELOUPE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO... RAINSHOWERS ARE NEARBY. LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS OR SO OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TIME. EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 74W...REACHING THE AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA/JAMAICA/THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... APPROACHING HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W 30N64W 24N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W 29N60W 25N66W 21N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 30N60W 26N65W 21N71W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 18N34W TO 06N40W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N57W 21N72W STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT