000 AXNT20 KNHC 102230 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 08N75W COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NE OF THE BASIN IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING MON MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-12 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N12W TO 05N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N15W TO 01N30W TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S45W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR LUMBERTON NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SW-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS. MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN UNDER THIS PATTERN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MON NIGHT. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS TUE MORNING...WEAKENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO TRANSIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER NW HAITI NEAR 20N73W. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E OVER THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 71W. OTHERWISE...NO SURFACE FEATURES ARE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE BASIN. OUTSIDE OF THE PULSING WINDS TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. HISPANIOLA... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER NW HAITI NEAR 20N73W. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E OVER THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE PRESENCE OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE FEATURES LINGER WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N59W TO THE NW COAST OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E OVER THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 23N WITHIN 60-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 23N NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THEN WILL GRADUALLY DEGENERATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH WHILE DRIFTING W-NW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR LUMBERTON NORTH CAROLINA WILL PERSIST W OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER N OF THE AREA NEAR 40N40W WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY