000
AXNT20 KNHC 101002
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 08N74W COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NE OF
THE BASIN IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
COLOMBIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE...THEN
WILL PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 03N17W TO 011N30W TO 03N43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM N OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 20W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDS S INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO WHERE IT IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTER
NEAR 29N87W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DOMINATES THE BASIN ALONG WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR FAVORING FAIR
WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT CLIPS THE NE GULF. NEW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
MOVING NE TOWARDS ATLC WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO FRESH
SE RETURN FLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW GULF WATERS TUE AT SUNRISE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER OFFSHORE WATERS OF NW COLOMBIA. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. OTHERWISE...THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...JAMAICA...HAITI AND
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
 
HISPANIOLA...            

THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH COMBINED WITH
MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND
FLOW SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HAITI AND
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC
WATERS WITH TAIL REACHING NORTHERN-CENTRAL CUBA WILL APPROACH
THE ISLAND FROM THE NW TODAY...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IN THE AREA
THROUGH MON. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO 23N77W...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH FROM 30N63W TO 23N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N63W SW TO OFFSHORE WATERS OF
NW HAITI IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL STALL INTO MON WHILE IT
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS