000 AXNT20 KNHC 100559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NE OF THE BASIN IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF COLOMBIA STARTING AT 0600 UTC THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE...THEN WILL PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9-11 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 04N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 04N17W TO ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W AND 38W THEN TO 02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S TO 03N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDS S INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 29N87W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN ALONG WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE EASTERN GULF INTO EARLY SUN. NEW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS MOVING NE TOWARDS ATLC WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW GULF WATERS TUE AT SUNRISE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS TO THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N73W...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...EASTERN JAMAICA TO 16N77W. SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE TRADEWIND FLOW ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA AND HAITI. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IS ACROSS THE WATERS. OTHER THAN THE INCREASING WINDS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA LATER THIS MORNING...AS IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS TO THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N73W...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...EASTERN JAMAICA TO 16N77W COMBINED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE COLD FRONT BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE NW TODAY SUN...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IN THE AREA THROUGH MON. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO 25N74W...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH N OF 20N WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N63W TO OFFSHORE WATERS OF NW HAITI BY SUNRISE TODAY AND THEN WILL STALL INTO MON. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OFF THE NE FLORIDA/SE GEORGIA COAST THIS MORNING...MERGING WITH THE LEAD COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MON. OTHERWISE...ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS