000
AXNT20 KNHC 100119 RRA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...1004 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NE OF
THE BASIN IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING SUN MORNING...THEN WILL
PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 05N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N15W TO ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W AND
40W THEN TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-
31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SE OF THE BASIN ACROSS CUBA WITH DRY AND
STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF JUST S OF MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR
29.5N87.5W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DOMINATES THE BASIN. THE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CLIPS THE EASTERN GULF INTO EARLY SUN.
NEW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO
FRESH SE RETURN FLOW TO PREVAIL SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS WESTERN CUBA WITH DRY
AND STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THIS PORTION OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
FEATURES ARE ACROSS THE WATERS. OTHER THAN THE INCREASING WINDS
TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
 
HISPANIOLA...            

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER HAITI...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ON EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING...AND DAYTIME
HEATING ARE ALL HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IN THE AREA THROUGH MON. THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N69W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TO CENTRAL CUBA...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH N OF 25N WITHIN 150
NM SE OF THE FRONT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE
FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE
OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO ACROSS HAITI. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 32N61W TO EASTERN CUBA BY SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL
INTO MON. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OFF THE
NE FLORIDA/SE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT...MERGING WITH THE LEAD COLD
FRONT SUN THROUGH MON. OTHERWISE...ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY