000 AXNT20 KNHC 091110 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT APR 09 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OR SO...ENDING BY 09/1200 UTC. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS...AND ALONG PART OF THE COAST OF MOROCCO... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR UNTIL 10/1200 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W...TO 04N14W AND 01N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W...TO 03S31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE 03N4W 04N13W... TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...02S35W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 27N TO 29N ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE CONFIRMING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA...IN ALICE...IN ROBSTOWN...AND IN KINGSVILLE...AS EXAMPLES. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N78W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO 29N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO A MEXICO COASTAL WATERS 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N97W...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... IFR CONDITIONS...KEMK MVFR CONDITIONS...KXIH. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM ALICE TO KINGSVILLE...TO THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA. FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THE WIND FLOW CURVES NORTHEASTWARD...BEYOND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN IT MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE...FROM 67W EASTWARD...FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND 80W INCLUDING COVERING PARTS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND FROM SOUTHERN NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS AND IN PARTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO/PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT RIDGE...WHOSE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA...WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN EAST-TO- WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN NORTHEAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE...AND A MIXTURE OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A. AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 76W...REACHING THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 30N76W...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO 24N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N78W... TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO 29N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. A WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY OF CLOUDS MARKS THE COLD FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTH OF 28N79W 30N73W 32N70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.07 IN BERMUDA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W...TO 25N45W AND 24N47W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MOROCCO NEAR 23N16W...TO 19N28W 14N35W AND 06N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N57W 27N59W 23N60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 05N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 59W/60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT