000 AXNT20 KNHC 090556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 09 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IMMINENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS...AND ALONG PART OF THE COAST OF MOROCCO... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS UNTIL 10/0000 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W...TO 04N16W AND 01N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 04S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 07W...AND WITHIN 150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 06N12W 03N20W 01N30W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N82W IN FLORIDA...TO 29N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN EAST TEXAS 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... MVFR CONDITIONS...KGHB. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THE WIND FLOW CURVES NORTHEASTWARD...BEYOND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN IT MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE...FROM 66W EASTWARD...FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND 80W INCLUDING COVERING PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS AND IN PARTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT RIDGE...WHOSE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA...WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN EAST-TO- WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN NORTHEAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE...AND A MIXTURE OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A. AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 78W...REACHING THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO 30N78W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THAT IS NEAR 28N80W...ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N82W IN FLORIDA...TO 29N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY OF CLOUDS IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W 30N76W 29N78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.07 IN BERMUDA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W...TO 28N48W AND 23N47W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 48W FROM 25N BEYOND 32N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MOROCCO NEAR 23N16W...TO 19N28W 14N35W AND 06N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 48W FROM 25N BEYOND 32N. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT