000 AXNT20 KNHC 081728 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 3W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 7W-14W INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF MONSOON TROUGH S OF 3N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH THEN ACROSS SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. THIS FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. LINGERING MOISTURE TO THE S OF THIS FRONT IS GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-26N W OF 92W INCLUDING EXTREME S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS S OF THE FRONT NEAR 26N94W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 24N86W WHICH WILL EXIT THE GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N GULF WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE E GULF TONIGHT AND SAT. ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF SAT THEN THROUGH THE E GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THESE FRONTS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE LINGERING UPPER MOISTURE PREVAILS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO E CUBA INCLUDING JAMAICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT BRIEFLY REACHING GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND DAY TIME HEATING. THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN. A FRONT WILL APPROACH HAITI SUN. THIS IS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SUN AND SUN NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N72W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 31N51W ALONG 26N56W TO 20N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE AREA SURROUNDING THE CANARY ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF AGADIR WILL HAVE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE METAREA2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL WASH OUT THIS EVENING. AN OTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MERGE OFF THE SE CONUS THROUGH SAT NIGHT MERGING INTO ONE FRONT THAT WILL REACH FROM 32N61W ALONG 27N65W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N77W SUN MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW