000 AXNT20 KNHC 080604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 08 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS UNTIL 09/0000 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW 09/0000 UTC CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NEAR GALE- FORCE WINDS IN CANARIAS. PERSISTENCE OF NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS OR GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...TO 04N16W AND 01N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N21W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W...TO 03S26W...04S32W... 02S36W...AND 03S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 13W AND 20W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE...FROM THE EQUATOR AT 20W...TO 10N24W 10N32W 02N50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W...ACROSS FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N80W IN FLORIDA...TO 24N82W AND 23N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N92W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 89W WESTWARD. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... IFR CONDITIONS...KEMK. MVFR CONDITIONS...KGHB. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THE WIND FLOW CURVES NORTHEASTWARD TO 16N73W...AND THEN IT MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE REMNANT FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 80W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHWESTERN JAMAICA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.19 IN GUADELOUPE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACCORDING TO THE 07/2200 UTC OBSERVATION. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8000 FEET. SANTO DOMINGO...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILING. LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...1800 FEET. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 2000 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT RIDGE THAT SPANS THE AREA WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW WILL CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN FROM THE WEST DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN NORTHEAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 26N51W AND 23N51W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N55W TO 25N60W 22N63W AND 22N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N TO 32NBETWEEN 71W AND 73W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 27N45W AND 16N56W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N64W AND 24N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N09W IN MOROCCO...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 22N24W TO 10N40W AND 02N43W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT