000 AXNT20 KNHC 071730 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU APR 07 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N E OF 16W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-28W AND FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 24W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS S GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY THEN ALONG 28N91W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 93W. THE COLD FRONT WILL RACE E REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NE GULF EARLY FRI AND EXTEND THROUGH THE SE GULF FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THESE FRONTS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO OVER THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON S OF 20N. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 16N E OF 79W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT OVER HISPANIOLA WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRIEFLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FRI AND SAT NIGHTS. HISPANIOLA... THE STATIONARY FRONT LIES ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM 69W-73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE US EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N78W BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 31N BETWEEN 76W-78W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N60W TO 24N57W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS 32N49W ALONG 28N53W 20N69W TO ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO 20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF THE FRONT E OF 59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE AREA SURROUNDING THE CANARY ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA WILL HAVE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE METAREA2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N70W TO W CUBA FRI MORNING THEN DISSIPATE FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT MORNING. A SECOND FRONT TO MOVE INTO NW ATLC FRI EVENING AND MOVE SE AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH REMNANTS OF FIRST FRONT SAT NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW