000 AXNT20 KNHC 070507 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU APR 07 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS UNTIL 08/0000 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW 08/0000 UTC CONSISTS OF...THE THREAT OF GALE-FORCE WIND IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 05N09W TO 01N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N20W... REACHING THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W...CONTINUING ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W AND 35W...TO 03S50W INLAND IN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W...AND FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N FROM 22W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. SOME OF THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PART OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH THAT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ALSO IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 27N NORTHWARD FROM 84W WESTWARD. A COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS LOUISIANA...TO THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... IFR CONDITIONS...KEMK. MVFR CONDITIONS...KGBK. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN PORT FOURCHON. MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR TO IFR IN THE TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO...MVFR CEILING...1600 FEET. LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS IN EACH CITY. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING NORTHWEST WIND TO HISPANIOLA IN ITS WAKE. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA NORTHWARD...BEYOND JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS PUERTO RICO. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME WEST WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY ONE. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE BORDER AREA OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA EASTWARD BEYOND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. EXPECT WEST-TO- NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN NORTHEAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...AND FROM 80W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.04 IN GUADELOUPE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SPREADING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FIRST COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N53W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 27N53W TO 22N65W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. A SECOND FRONT IS DISSIPATING COLD FROM 31N56W TO 25N64W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 25N64W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 26N59W TO 20N62W...AND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND 79W INCLUDING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. STRATIFORM CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N NORTHWARD AND FROM 60W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN BERMUDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N10W TO 28N26W...TO A 22N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N39W AND 06N49W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 28N45W 24N50W AND 18N56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 07N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT