000 AXNT20 KNHC 070004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED APR 06 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SENEGAL AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 04N16W TO 01N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S26W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 02N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W AND N OF THE ITCZ FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 28W AND 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PROVIDES THE GULF WITH LIGHT S-SE FLOW...EXCEPT N OF 26N W OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W TO 27N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WEST AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N FROM 90W TO 85W AS SHOWN BY SATELLITE DERIVED AND RADAR IMAGERY. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MAINLY MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NORTHERN GULF AND SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TOWARD THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER NW GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE AND BY THU AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA TO THE FAR SE GULF WHERE IT WILL BECOME DISSIPATING STATIONARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN WITH BASE REACHING COASTAL VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH TAIL REACHING FROM NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC IS FUNNELING N-NW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ENHANCED BY LOCAL TERRAIN. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE...BEING SUPPORTED BY A RELAXED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER TO THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL STALL LATER TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. HISPANIOLA... A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH TAIL REACHING FROM NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC IS FUNNELING N-NW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL STALL LATER TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU...SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT FROM 30N56W TO 23N63W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 245 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER BOUNDARY N OF HISPANIOLA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TRAILS THE LEADING FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 30N57W TO 24N67W...EXPECTED TO MERGE THE LEADING FRONT LATER TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W AND E OF THE FRONT IS BEING DOMINATED BY RIDGING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. PLEASE SEE ATLC HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...METEO FRANCE HAS A GALE WARNING FOR THE AREA E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO ALONG THE COAST OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE METAREA2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST ON THU REACHING FROM 32N70W TO THE CENTRAL CUBA ON FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS