000 AXNT20 KNHC 061716 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED APR 06 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 2N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N E OF 13W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 35W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS TRAILING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS S FLORIDA BETWEEN MIAMI AND NAPLES THEN INTO THE NE GULF TO 29N86W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY BEFORE CONTINUING INLAND NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TOWARD THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS INLAND OVER TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERING THE GULF AND ALL OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 93W-96W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE E GULF FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THIS EVENING AND SHIFT SE REACHING FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO NE MEXICO THU MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATE FROM S FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO BY FRI MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE N GULF THU AND FRI IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS N HAITI FROM 20N72W TO 19N75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 15N TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF 83W AND FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 83W- 88W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT OVER HAITI WILL STALL TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES NE OFF THE US MID ATLC COAST. FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER N HAITI INTO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND DUE TO THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU CONTINUING TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A LEADING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N57W ALONG 24N65W TO 20N72W THEN OVER N HAITI INTO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TRAILS THE LEADING FRONT AND ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N60W ALONG 27N65W 25N75W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR MIAMI. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N AND W OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE AREA E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO ALONG THE COAST OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE METAREA2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM. THE LEADING COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N50W TO N HISPANIOLA THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT N AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS WHILE REMAINDER OF FRONT SINKS S AND MERGES WITH LEADING FRONT TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST ON THU REACHING FROM 32N70W TO THE CENTRAL CUBA ON FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW