000 AXNT20 KNHC 051715 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR... TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS UNTIL 06/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW 06/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF...THE PERSISTENCE OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE OR GALE IN AGADIR...TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEON NEAR 08N13W...TO 02N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 20W TO 30W...AND THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR WEST OF 30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED STRONG N OF 03N TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA BETWEEN 08W AND 14W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG N OF THE EQUATOR E OF 00W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAILING. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE GULF...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY EXIST IN THE SW GULF SOUTH OF 22N WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK. DRY TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AS SHOWN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT ANY DEEP CONVECTION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA... AS OF 15 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL CUBA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT INCLUDING OVER CENTRAL CUBA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED THE TYPICAL NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE...EXCEPT FOR FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD FADE BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR HISPANIOLA...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND MOUNTAINOUS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CONTINUES PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD...THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME DEEP CONVECTION...OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N65W AT A 1012 MB LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO A 1015 MB LOW AT 28N69W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TO THE CENTRAL CUBAN COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT AT 32N TO WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z FLORIDA/ BERMUDA RAWINDSONDE OBSERVATIONS. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE UP TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS...BUT THE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH AS A NEW COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...CATCHES UP AND MERGES WITH THE ORIGINAL FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG AND FORCE STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONTINUED SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINED COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS EXPECTED. EXCEPT WHAT WAS NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. EASTERLY TRADEWINDS WELL EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN FRESH TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA