000 AXNT20 KNHC 041742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 04 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 06N10W TO THE EASTERN ATLC WATERS NEAR 04N13W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04N13W...THEN CONTINUES ALONG 03N25W TO 00N40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 12W AND 22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 25W AND 30W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 26N95W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS BUILDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CURRENTLY CROSSES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A 180 NM WIDE-BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMDEDDED AREAS OF RAIN IS NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. THIS CLOUDINESS IS AFFECTING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS AS WELL AS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE... GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WHILE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE NE-E WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE HIGH PRES WILL MEANDER OVER THE NW WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE E PASSING JUST S OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA LATE TUE AND MOVE NE OF THE AREA EARLY WED. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY TUE. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...W-NW WINDS DOMINATE THE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO MOVE E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GRADUALLY LOSING IDENTITY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUE NIGHT. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS CROSSING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALOFT...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO BEYOND PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES BETWEEN BARBADOS AND TRINIDAD-TOBAGO THE CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA. HISPANIOLA... PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. OVERALL FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY TUE NIGHT...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N ATLC WATERS W OF 60W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N60W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 26N71W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY CROSSING THE NW BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SE AS ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY TUE MORNING. THESE FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO LIKELY MERGE ON WED WITH THE MERGED FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO 22N65W TO HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N36W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE SEEN PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY FROM 15N TO 25N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR