000
AXNT20 KNHC 041042
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W
TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 04N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
04N16W...CROSSES THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W THEN CONTINUES TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 200 NM S OF BOTH BOUNDARIES BETWEEN
13W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N96W AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N90W. FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. ACROSS THE FAR S PORTION OF
THE AREA...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N87W TO 23N80W.
THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
CHANNEL FROM 15N89W TO 22N87W TO 23N84W. ISOLATED CONVECTION
PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONT AFFECTING THE FAR W CARIBBEAN WATERS
MAINLY W OF 85W. TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN.
SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN...WITH A
HIGHER CONCENTRATION OBSERVED OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO PREVAIL OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
 
HISPANIOLA...            

A LARGE PATCH OF SHALLOW MOISTURE PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. OVERALL FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE EXCEPTION BEING DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N ATLANTIC WATERS W OF 60W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N76W TO
32N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF
28N BETWEEN 58W-66W. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE WITHIN
300 NM E OF FRONT N OF 28N WITH SEAS REACHING 9 FT. TO THE E...A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 34N37W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WERE NOTED S OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE FROM 18N TO 29N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING E THEN STALL. THE REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
W ATLANTIC MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MAKING IT MOVE E. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA