000
AXNT20 KNHC 040548
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0548 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 07N13W TO
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 04N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
04N15W...CROSSES THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W THEN CONTINUES TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
11W-38W.
 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 21N97W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N92W. FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. ACROSS THE FAR S PORTION OF
THE AREA...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N87W TO 24N80W
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT A
SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
CHANNEL FROM 15N89W TO 22N87W TO 23N84W. ISOLATED CONVECTION
PREVAILS ALONG THIS FRONT AFFECTING THE FAR W CARIBBEAN WATERS W
OF 85W. TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN...WITH HIGHER
CONCENTRATION OBSERVED OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO
PREVAIL OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.
 
HISPANIOLA...            

A LARGE PATCH OF SHALLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING OVER THE ISLAND
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE EXCEPTION
BEING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N ATLANTIC WATERS W OF 60W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N78W TO
32N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF
28N BETWEEN 58W-66W. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE WITHIN
300 NM E OF FRONT N OF 29N WITH SEAS REACHING 9 FT. TO THE E...A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 34N38W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WERE NOTED E OF
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING E THEN STALL. THE REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
W ATLANTIC MERGING WITH THE FORMER BOUNDARY MAKING IT MOVE E.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA