000 AXNT20 KNHC 040000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN APR 03 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 07N11W TO THE EASTERN ATLC WATERS NEAR 04N13W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04N13W...CROSSES THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W THEN CONTINUES TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 13W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO DOMINATED MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WAS BUILDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE N COAST OF CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NE COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR CANCUN. AS OF 21 UTC...THE FRONT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING STATIONARY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND EMDEDDED SHOWERS WERE NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT WAS ABATING...HOWEVER MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUED OVER THE GULF E OF 90W...BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NW GULF. THE EVOLVING STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY TUE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE REMAINDER BASIN WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRES AND VARIABLE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS...ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WAS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OVER THE SE GULF AND YUCATAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CUBA. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT TO THE CARIBBEAN HAS ALLOWED TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN WITH 1422 AND 1500 UTC ASCAT PASSES INDICATING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE BASIN E OF 80W. SKIES WERE GENERALLY FAIR OVER THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND EASTERN HAITI. THE ACTIVITY OVER HAITI WAS WEAKENING. THE EVOLVING STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA AND PROLONG THE SHOWERS OVER CUBA AND THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE BASIN. HISPANIOLA... A LARGE PATCH OF SHALLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA LIKELY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN HAITI. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS FAIRLY STABLE ...ALTHOUGH A WEAK TRADE INVERSION WAS STILL NOTED ON THIS MORNINGS SANTO DOMINGO RAWINDSONDE AT 575-600 MB. OVERALL FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE EXCEPTION BEING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHEARING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N ATLC WATERS W OF 60W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT N OF 29N WITH SEAS REACHING 9 FT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N38W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WERE NOTED E OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WHEN THE FRONT STARTS TO STALL. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A COLD FRONT EARLY WED MORNING WHEN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MERGES WITH THE FORMER BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB