000 AXNT20 KNHC 031744 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN APR 03 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 06N11W TO E ATLC WATERS ALONG 03N15W TO 02N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 02N19W...CROSSES THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W THEN CONTINUES TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 06N E OF 17W AND FROM 08S TO 01N W OF 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE IT STALLS. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE GRADIENT OF PRES BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN IT WILL START TO DISSIPATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SE GULF THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE REMAINDER BASIN WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRES AND VARIABLE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS...ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE IT STALLS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE FRONT AND A BROAD RIDGE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. THESE SHOWERS EXTEND INLAND WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 20N W OF 80W. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO STALL LATER TODAY...THUS PROLONGING THE SHOWERS IN THE FAR NW BASIN. A LARGE PATCH OF SHALLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING S OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA LIKELY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING INLAND. STABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE BEING INFLUENCED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. A RELAXED PRES GRADIENT BASIN-WIDE SUPPORT MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LIGHT TRADES ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... A LARGE PATCH OF SHALLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING S OF HISPANIOLA LIKELY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE EXCEPTION BEING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHEN SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 220 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE WITHIN 390 NM E OF FRONT N OF 29.5N WITH SEAS REACHING 9 FT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE AREA BY A 1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTER. A LOCALLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 29W AND 52W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WHEN THE FRONT STARTS TO STALL. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A COLD FRONT EARLY WED MORNING WHEN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE FORMER BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS