000 AXNT20 KNHC 030549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 03 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST IN LIBERIA NEAR 07N13W TO 03N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 03N16W AND CROSSES THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W THEN CONTINUES TO 04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE FROM THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS FROM 21N89W TO 27N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE FAR E GULF WATERS S OF 24N AND E OF 87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1023 MB HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 27N97W AND 22N98W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN MAINLY NW OF THE FRONT WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WHOLE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS ENHANCING ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTED AT UPPER LEVELS BY A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N63W TO 10N78W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION AND WINDS/SEAS. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND AS A LARGE PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN PREVAILS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT FOR DRIER WEATHER TO PREVAIL IN 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 32N77W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 28N80W TO 30N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES MAINLY W OF 76W. TO THE E...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 34N42W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHILE A MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT E. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA