000 AXNT20 KNHC 022356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT APR 02 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE AREA... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 22N91W TO 18N93W AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER MEXICO SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 95W...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 10 TO 14 FT. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THIS EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST IN LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W TO 04N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04N17W AND CROSSES THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W THEN CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W TO 03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE FROM THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES SW AND BECOMES SHEARED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 22N91W TO 18N93W. SOME MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN 45-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.5N85.5W TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT AND BANKING UP ALONG THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. THE GOES-R FOG/LOW STRATUS PROXY PRODUCT SUGGESTS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE S OF 21N. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER MEXICO SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS IN AN AREA S OF 20N AND W OF 95W. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WERE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT AND E OF 95W. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N84W TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BELIZE. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO VEER TO THE NE AND SUBSIDE OVER MOST OF THE GULF W OF 88W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 12N93W DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN NW OF AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SW TO NEAR 12N74W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILED OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDED INTO THE CARIBBEAN. AN EARLIER 1352 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS WERE STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WITH THE SAN JUAN WSR- 88D INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER NW CARIBBEAN WATERS BY EARLY MON MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO THIS REGION. HISPANIOLA... STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF HISPANIOLA AS A LARGE PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS. THE 12 UTC SANTO DOMINGO RAWINDSONDE STILL INDICATED A VERY WEAK TRADE WIND INVERSION AT 775 MB WITH ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.56 INCHES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINED AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING NE ACROSS CUBA TO 30N66W. A DOWNSTREAM SHARP MID-TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED SW FROM 32N50W THROUGH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 21N55W THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE SW N ATLC WATERS N OF 26N W OF 73W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE REMNANTS OF A FORMER DISSIPATING FRONT CONTINUE TO BE ANALYZED AS A SHEARLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N25W TO 24N40W TO 25N48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N41W. FRESH WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHEARLINE...N OF 13N BETWEEN 25W AND 55W. FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS ARE IN THE SW BASIN N OF 28N W OF 70W AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRESSING SE OVER THE SW ATLC WATERS THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB