000 AXNT20 KNHC 021805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT APR 02 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE AREA... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N85W TO 22N92W TO 18N94W AND HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND IT SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF COAST FROM 22N TO 24N AND S OF 21N W OF 95W...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FT. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 06N10W TO 04N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W TO 01S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE FROM THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER E U.S. WITH A BASE EXTENDING SW TO TEXAS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT AT 1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM 30N81W TO 23N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IN THE EASTERN BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 86W...INCLUDING CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ELSEWHERE. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND IT SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF COAST FROM 22N TO 24N AND S OF 21N W OF 95W...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE N WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIGHT TO MODERATE S FLOW PREVAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...YUCATAN CHANNEL AND YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE GULF EARLY MON MORNING WHEN THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF DURING THIS PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH E-SE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE...BEING SUPPORTED BY A RELAXED PRES GRADIENT. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT BASIN-WIDE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AS A LARGE PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE NE BASIN WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER NW CARIBBEAN WATERS EARLY MON MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO THIS REGION. HISPANIOLA... STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS A LARGE PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE SW N ATLC WATERS N OF 26N W OF 73W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMNANTS OF A FORMER DISSIPATING FRONT CONTINUE TO BE ANALYZED AS A SHEARLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N20W TO 24N36W TO 25N47W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N42W. FRESH WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHEARLINE...N OF 13N BETWEEN 25W AND 55W. FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS ARE IN THE SW BASIN N OF 28N W OF 70W AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER SW ATLC WATERS SUN MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR