000 AXNT20 KNHC 020001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI APR 01 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST FROM METEO-FRANCE ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 IS NOW INDICATING AND FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO IN AGADIR. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE AREA... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 30N89W TO 25N98W IS PRESSING SOUTHWARD. WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE INCREASING ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT PER THE MOST RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW GULF. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE S AND EXTEND FROM 30N86W TO 25.5N93W TO 18.5N95.5W BY 0900 UTC SAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TOM INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 KT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT S OF 24N AND W OF THE FRONT. THIS GALE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 0000 UTC SUN. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR 06N11W TO 03N15W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N15W...CROSSES THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 14W-31W AND S OF THE EQUATOR TO 04Z BETWEEN 37W- 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 09N96W DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH CUBA TO NEAR 30N70W. BROAD WSW FLOW WAS NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NE AND FUELING SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF THEM SEVERE ALONG THE GULF COAST BETWEEN THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS OF LOUISIANA TO APPALACHICOLA FLORIDA. A FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE SE TEXAS WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N89W TO 25N98W MOVING SOUTHWARD. WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE INCREASING ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT PER THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS 42019 AND 42020 IN THE NW GULF. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE FORECAST GALE FOR THE SW GULF. WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WERE FROM THE SE TO S AT 10-15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 -20 KT AND HIGHER AT ELEVATED PLATFORMS CLOSER TO THE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND GULF COAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM THE W COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SAT NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 09N96W DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN NW OF AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 11N73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FOCUSED IN AN AREA BETWEEN 67W-80W. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WERE GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH AT SPEEDS OF 10- 15 KT...LOCALLY 20 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PER 1414 AND 1504 UTC ASCAT A AND B PASSES. THE SAME ASCAT PASSES INDICATED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 19N W OF 85W AND FUNNELING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE BASIN EXCEPT AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THAT THE STORMS WERE WEAKENING. THESE STORM WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN PART TO THE ABSENCE OF THE TRADE WIND INVERSION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.70 INCHES AS NOTED ON THE 12 UTC SANTO DOMINGO RAWINDSONDE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINED AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING NE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 30N70W. A DOWNSTREAM SHARP MID- TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED SW FROM 32N58W TO 24N63W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 28N55W TO 22N50W WAS MOVING NE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A BROAD RIDGE COVERED THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30W AND 55W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF 25W. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N48W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 31N26W TO 27N40W AND CONTINUED AS A SHEAR AXIS TO 28N50W TO 30N58W. A FAIRLY DEEP 998 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER CENTRAL ALGERIA NEAR 30N03E. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. THESE WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB