000 AXNT20 KNHC 011746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 01 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO IN AGADIR UNTIL 02/1200 UTC. A GALE IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHERLY WINDS W OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE A GALE. ON 02/0900 UTC...COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N86W TO 22N95W TO 18.5N95W. NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT ARE FORECAST S OF 24N W OF FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE GALE WILL PERSIST UNTIL 03/0000 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR 06N11W TO 02N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N18W TO 00N26W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 12W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-06S BETWEEN 30W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM S LOUISIANA AT 29N91W TO NE MEXICO AT 25N97W. 20-25 KT NE WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N86W AND E TEXAS AT 29N96W. FURTHER S...A TINY 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 21N97W WITH 15 KT CYCLONIC WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SW GULF. SEE ABOVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH AXIS ALONG 60W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HAITI IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST W OF 70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N47W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 31N29W TO 27N40W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO 28N50W TO 30N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N15W. A 999 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER ALGERIA NEAR 28N01W. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO WITH A GALE. SEE ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W- 50W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 31N20W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA