000 AXNT20 KNHC 011112 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI APR 01 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR UNTIL 02/1200 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO 08N14W AND 03N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N18W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 20W...TO 02S23W 03S28W AND 03S34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 10N17W 05N30W 05N50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 88W/89W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N NORTHWARD. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK... KEHC...AND KMIS. IFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KHHV...KGBK...KGHB...KGRY...AND KATP. MVFR CONDITIONS...KGUL...KVQT...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ... KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY. MVFR FROM ROCKPORT TO FALFURRIAS. LIFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI. RAIN WITH THUNDER IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AND GALVESTON. RAIN COVERS THE AREA FROM CONROE TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOUISIANA...IFR IN NEW IBERIA. LIFR IN PATTERSON AND BATON ROUGE. IFR IN GALLIANO AND PORT FOURCHON. LIFR AND IFR ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MVFR IN SOME AREAS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LIFR AT THE WEST PLAINS REGIONAL AIRPORT NEAR NEW ORLEANS. IFR AT THE NEW ORLEANS NAVAL AIR STATION. MISSISSIPPI...RAIN...FOG...AND LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. ALABAMA...RAIN...FOG...AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THE COASTAL PLAINS. FLORIDA...LIFR AND IFR FROM PERRY WESTWARD. LIFR IN BROOKSVILLE. IFR IN THE TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. LIFR IN SARASOTA...IN PUNTA GORDA...AND IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N63W...AND 13N63W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... BARAHONA...LIGHT RAIN. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...1000 FEET...MVFR. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...BRINGING NORTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS. NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY TWO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 82W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.29 IN GUADELOUPE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 25N69W...TO 20N64W 18N63W...AND 13N63W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO 28N...TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 29N35W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 31N35W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 31N35W TO 28N45W 28N54W AND 28N61W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W 27N40W 26N50W 25N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N17W 14N25W 13N40W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 250 NM TO 500 NM TO THE NORTH OF 18N16W 13N25W 11N43W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N20W TO 27N33W 25N50W 25N58W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 24N72W...INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT