000 AXNT20 KNHC 312350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND TARFAYA UNTIL 01/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME PERIOD CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHERLY GALE IN AGADIR. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO 05N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N16W TO 00N27W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 17W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 10N96W DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. RIDGE AXIS WAS ALONG 88W WITH BROAD SW FLOW NOTED W OF THE AXIS OVER THE GULF. THIS FLOW WAS ADVECTING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF. A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADVANCING TOWARD THE GULF...PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH CONTINUES MOVING SE AND AS OF 2100 UTC IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...HOWEVER BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE NW GULF. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SE TO S WINDS HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE GULF FROM THE NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS EXPERIENCED EARLIER TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE INTO THE GULF ON FRIDAY AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRI NIGHT WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THE N OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT BY LATE FRI NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT4 AND WMO HEADER FZNT24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 10N96W DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN NW OF AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 11N70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN...WITH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE BASIN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WAS NOTED OVER THE NE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND ON THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THAT THE STORMS WERE MAINTAINING THEIR INTENSITY FOR NOW. THESE STORM WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN PART TO A WEAKER THAN NORMAL TRADE WIND INVERSION AS NOTED ON THE 12 UTC SANTO DOMINGO RAOB. ADDITIONALLY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE HIGHER THAN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AROUND 1.50 INCHES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WAS RATHER AMPLIFIED WITH A MID-TO UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 33N68W WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 26N63W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. DOWNSTREAM A BROAD RIDGE COVERED THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30W AND 55W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF 30W. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N54W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 31N41W TO 28N53W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TROUGH 27N60W TO 27N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN 55W AND 67W. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 33N68W WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY W OF 60W. A PAIR OF 1028 MB SURFACE HIGHS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 35N22W AND 31N27W DOMINATED THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. A FAIRLY DEEP 998 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER W ALGERIA NEAR 28N07W. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB