000 AXNT20 KNHC 311805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND TARFAYA UNTIL 01/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME PERIOD CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHERLY GALE IN AGADIR. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR 07N11W TO 03N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N17W TO 00N27W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-05N BETWEEN 15W-20W...FROM 02N-02S BETWEEN 21W-25W...AND FROM 1N-4S BETWEEN 35W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING SE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS PRESENTLY MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. THE GULF HAS 10-25 KT SOUTHERLY HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE OVER N TEXAS ALONG 97W. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO S TEXAS S OF CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR 27N97W. CONVECTION WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NW GULF. 15 KT NE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 15- 20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HAITI IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE PREVALENT NE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE ATLANTIC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N58W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 31N46W TO 28N53W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 27N60W TO 27N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N22W. A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER W ALGERIA NEAR 28N06W. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO PRODUCING A GALE. SEE ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE AXIS IS ENHANCING SHOWERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 55W-65W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 31N31W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO BE E OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA