000 AXNT20 KNHC 311105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND TARFAYA UNTIL 01/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME PERIOD CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHERLY GALE IN AGADIR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N11W TO 03N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N17W TO 02N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...TO 02S35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 07W AND 09W...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM OF THE COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 49W AND 58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 13N17W TO 06N26W TO 05N42W 10N45W 14N56W AND 12N62W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CUTS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS ONLY THE WESTERNMOST PARTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF TODAY THURSDAY AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TOMORROW FRIDAY. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR CONDITIONS...KMZG. IFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KBQX...KGBK...KEHC...AND KGHB. MVFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KVQT... KEIR...KSPR...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...KIPN...KMIS...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN BROWNSVILLE. MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE REST OF THE LOWER VALLEY. IFR IN ROBSTOWN AND ROCKPORT. MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LIFR IN PALACIOS. IFR IN PORT LAVACA. MVFR IN VICTORIA. IFR IN BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. MVFR IN GALVESTON. IFR IN SUGARLAND. MOSTLY MVFR IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER CITIES...INCLUDING TO BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AND CONROE AND HUNTSVILLE. ELLINGTON FIELD IN HOUSTON IS REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS. IFR IN JASPER. LOUISIANA...IFR AND MVFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. IFR IN NEW IBERIA. MVFR IN LAFAYETTE...GALLIANO...PORT FOURCHON...AND BOOTHVILLE. IFR IN SLIDELL. MVFR FROM BATON ROUGE TO THE HAMMOND NORTHSHORE REGIONAL AIRPORT. MVFR ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR CONDITIONS. ALABAMA...MVFR AT THE MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT. FLORIDA...MVFR IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF FORT MYERS. LIFR IN NAPLES. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST PARTS OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE...INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF VENEZUELA ALONG 70W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA EASTWARD. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO...LIGHT RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE MOMENT. SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 1600 FEET AND AT 7000 FEET. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY ONE. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT MORE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL START ON DAY ONE TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL END UP MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS AND TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO STARTS AS NORTHWESTERLY...AND THEN IT EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHERLY. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE AREA OF BELIZE/GUATEMALA/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 26N AT THE START OF DAY ONE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH EITHER ONE BROAD INVERTED TROUGH...OR A SERIES OF SHORT-TERM INVERTED TROUGHS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY FROM 13N NORTHWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN GUADELOUPE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N72W TO 25N70W...BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 29N53W TO 27N61W...AND STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N61W TO 27N71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 60W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 30W EASTWARD TO AFRICA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN MOROCCO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N17W 22N28W 16N41W 17N58W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 27N39W 26N53W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 54W...AWAY FROM THE 32N48W 27N61W COLD FRONT...AND THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT